Category — Real Estate

I have worked my fingers to the bone assembling Sonoma County residential sales and activity records for the last four years to answer the question in the title. Are we at the bottom? In order to get the broadest view possible I chose all residential sales in the county which mixes condos, single family homes, and farms and includes high price areas like Fountain Grove, Sonoma, and Healdsburg as well as south west Santa Rosa and the Russian River.

I’d like to point out two interesting patterns that hint at an answer. The first is sales volume which is indicated by the yellow line. Within that line which goes from January of 2004 to December of 2007 you can see seasonal variations. The two highest peaks on the graph are for the selling seasons in 2004 and 2005 when the market was hyper-active. If you were buying at the time you remember that every listing had multiple offers and no house was selling for less than asking price. Even if you weren’t in the market, the conversations around the water coolers and the golf course (or job site) were all about how much your house’s value had gone up that month. Looking back on it, we should have known it was crazy.

Continue tracking the yellow line to this summer on the right side of the chart and you’ll see the plateau that has occurred since the mortgage meltdown in August. We are far off our usual monthly levels, but I can actually take some grim satisfaction in seeing a plateau as opposed to continued declines. From the point of view of unit sales volume, we may have hit bottom. We’re going to be selling at least 250 homes a month if the trend continues. If you’re waiting for the magic month when nothing sells and the buyers have to panic sell, you’re not going to be rewarded. It will take a long time to clear our inventory at this rate, but homes that are priced right will sell.

The other interesting trend is the return of the median price to approximately mid 2004 levels. I have drawn a blue line for you to see that the median price (the shorter of the vertical bars) in May 2004 and December 2007 are about at the same level. Keep in mind that the mix of condos and luxury estates isn’t the same and that the market today has a much higher inventory, so the two months aren’t comparable directly. Still, as a rough finger in the wind estimate of the state of the market I think it would be fair to say that we have seen a big squeezing of the bubble and returned to a pricing level that averages about 20% less than the peak.

I’ll have more to say about pricing in my next post where I talk about REO (Real Estate Owned by banks) holdings and actual REO sales in the last six months. Just as a teaser for you, it’s clear that many homes in the market today are priced right. Let me know if you are interested in seeing information for cities you are interested in buying in.

Fitch Mountain dominates Healdsburg’s east side. The mountain fills the skyline and forces the Russian River to make a wide swing around the town. The blue circled area in the photo holds several hundred homes along S Fitch Mountain Road, N Fitch MountainRoad, Redwood Drive, and a network of other small roads that are in Sonoma County’s jurisdiction rather than the city of Healdsburg. These homes, for the most part, were originally cabins and weekend getaways. Over time many of them have been updated to modern standards, but this is still a rural community with the feel of most redwood-dense towns serviced by narrow roads. You might think of Felton and Ben Lomond in Santa Cruz County or Rio Nido in Sonoma County as similar feeling neighborhoods. Depending on where you are on the hill, you may be in deep shade all year, or in one of the fortunate spots with acess to full sun.

I just listed a property on the mountain with superb sun and nice river views. The blue circle on the photo to the right shows the house’s location with south being towards the bottom of the image and the river flowing from the north east towards the west. The river views from the house are westerly.

The house itself is right at the borderline of fixability. People may legitimately differ on whether the house should be torn down and built from scratch or repaired and upgraded.

The reality is that Sonoma County septic and construction guidelines will have more to do with how the new vs. remodel question gets answered than the actual situation might dictate. The single most important question that has to be addressed is the septic issue. There is no sewer service available on Fitch Mountain, and almost none of the existing residences could meet new code requirements for Class One septic systems. The current waste disposal systems exist and are maintained as well as they can be and are tolerated by the County as non-conforming.

Whether a home that has been unlived-in and red-tagged by the county will be tolerated without the upgrade to a Class One septic system is an open question. Potential buyers will have to hire septic system experts to analyze the site and negotiate with the county. Once that question has been answered, new owners can choose whether to build new or rebuild a home that sun lovers can appreciate.

I had a chance to visit a terrific ten acre property on Eastside Road near Forestville today. You’re never quite sure what you’re going to find on a place you can’t see from the road, but I have been driving past this secluded driveway for years and have never had a chance to see the house or gardens. First, let me say that you aren’t going to see it here either. Instead, I’m going to tease you with a handful of lovely details and encourage you to visit the “official” web site.

Small details matter to me. This place is filled with deft touches that indicate a deep affection for doing things right. The picture you’re looking at might be hard to make out, so feel free to click on it to see the larger view. What you are seeing is a gently curved piece of wood that serves as a bridge at the pond. Wood has the potential to be very slippery when it’s wet, and the builder has taken the time to carefully insert metal bumps to provide traction. It’s subtle and almost invisible when you’re walking, but it represents a care that is echoed elsewhere on the property.

At the same bridge, there is a lovely railing detail with a curved copper hand cleanly attached to the post. The two side rails are close enough to provide a secure feeling when crossing the bridge and are big enough to feel comfortable in the hand and look correct in the scale of the garden and pond. Again, just the right touch of design sense, choice of materials, and execution to be a fine detail.

The entry courtyard, home of the cactus in the first picture, is also graced with nice details. In addition to the diamond plate cactus, there’s a multi-tiered fountain, and a second small piece of metal art to the left of the gate and a host of fruit trees and flowers. The gate itself has two wooden swinging doors and a bell in the opening in the door that has a melodious gong sound to announce visitors. The whole thing is topped with an exuberant potato vine in a pretty arch. Details make the difference on this Sonoma County Russian River valley parcel.

Sometimes good opportunities are right in front of you and you just can’t see them. That’s what I was thinking after I got done touring the Foss Creek Villas with Ed Buckner last week. I am usually focused on Healdsburg real estate whether it’s vineyard properties or country land or looking at Victorians on Matheson and Tucker. I’ll also check out anything near downtown Healdsburg since walking distance to the plaza is always a great selling point. Somehow in the midst of all that looking, the fact that Healdsburg has some affordable condos in walking distance to downtown just hadn’t registered.

I’ve looked at the condos at the Grove (just across the street), and they’re very nicely done and brand new, but with prices starting at around $615,000 they’re not a weekend getaway place for everyone. I still think they represent an excellent value, but after seeing what $399,000 to $449,000 can buy at Foss Creek Villas I know where I would buy my Healdsburg getaway place. The $300,000 you save buys an awful lot of great dinners at Cyrus and Dry Creek Kitchen, and that’s one of the main reasons you want to spend your spare time in Healdsburg anyway.

The two bedroom, two bath Foss Creek Villas have been totally redone with new interiors, great landscaping, and garages for the first 25 buyers. The kitchens are high quality with granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances and the finishes throughout are very nice quality. You can find a lot more detail and the full sales pitch at the condo web site, but I wanted to mention the project here just to let my readers know that you can still find excellent real estate values in Healdsburg. I don’t know of any place along the 101 corridor from Sonoma County to San Jose where you can be so close to so many good restaurants for well under $500,000. For the real bargain hunters, Ed told me that two units are being sold for only $399,000.

Of course, these places aren’t just for weekend visitors. This is a great location for anyone working downtown, in any of the Foss Circle business condos, or at the Parkpoint Health Club which is just across the street. It’s hard to get more convenient than this.

As a last word, I think the landscaping people have done a great job. Next time you’re in the area, stop by for a look and say hello to Ed for me.

UPDATED: Corrected web link.

There are a lot of unique neighborhoods in Sonoma County. Tucked in between Santa Rosa and Windsor and bounded by Old Redwood Highway, Fulton Road, and Highway 101 is a small enclave of about 80 homes. They’re on Mark West Station Road, Donna Road, and Kay Avenue. The streets are laid out in the shape of an H with Kay as the crossbar.

The west end of the area is bordered by vineyards running all the way to Highway 101 and an ecological reserve that is an excellent example of the woodlands and plains that once covered most of the Santa Rosa area.

There’s a big range of home sizes here, from tiny cottages to elaborate, modern houses.
The lots tend to be big with one acre parcels as the most common size.One of the things I like most is the tree lined character of the area with some really terrific oaks. One of the reasons for the health of the vegetation here vegetation health is the high water table. It will flood in the winter when rains are heavy and the ground is saturated. Houses that are at grade level are vulnerable.

I think this is an area poised for improvement and growth. This is a superb location where you could bicycle to work anywhere in the Airport Blvd area of Santa Rosa. The current large lots combined with the modest existing homes represent excellent land values capable of supporting much more highly valued homes. A combination of owners remodeling their homes along with newcomers starting from scratch is likely to change the character of this charming neighborhood.

I just hope that in the rush to build new and better homes we don’t forget to allow for entry level housing for our young population. I was remembering today about the fun I had at age ten working with my dad to build a tree house. It wasn’t as nice as this one, but it inspired me to enjoy the building process.

Healdsburg has an interesting architectural history with ornate Victorians and classic Craftsman era homes downtown interspersed with more humble bungalows, and the rare, but ugly, 1970’s condo complex.

Healdsburg’s Growth Management Program mandates an average of 30 new homes per year. For the past several years, that program has funneled growth into Area A, in the northern part of Healdsburg. Part of the planning was to encourage diversity of style, and that has turned out to be as architecturally interesting as was hoped for when residential development was encouraged in this small, hilly neighborhood.

Almost half of the lots in Area A have been built on, and the Clear Ridge subdivision, which was the first to start building, is looking quite complete. There’s a strong Mediterranean feel in general in this neighborhood, but there’s been a lot experimentation with roofs, wall textures and materials, and styles.

The amount of experimentation is very interesting in itself, and the end result of all the variation adds to the charm and visual interest in these view-rich homes.

At the foot of Clear Ridge Drive where it intersects Poppy Hill a new house is nearing completion that is a beautiful example of the designer’s vision. Stone foundations with natural wood siding and copper flashing and gutters are traditional elements that are used to great effect by the designer. The repetitive roof planes and eaves are beautiful. For my taste, this is one of the most elegant and timeless houses in Healdsburg.

If you have some time on one of these harvest weekends, have a drive through this area to see what’s going on. We do have a couple of buildable lots for sale if you think you might like to live in the neighborhood.

We all do visual double takes. Is that a Llama or goat or what? For all of us it’s a familiar experience, particularly since life is zooming by and we usually don’t have time to see things carefully the first time. When I looked at this property the first time I certainly made a bunch of assumptions that didn’t turn out to be true. I got one right, but I’ll tell you about that after I confess my mistakes.

By the way, the mistakes I made are why I ended up liking this Watertrough Road four acre parcel in Sebastopol so much. It fooled me several times as I would first label it and then have to change my mind once I got to know a little more about it. The learning process helped me understand all the great things about this place that the quick glance and premature labeling would have made me miss. So not only do I come out liking the property a lot, but it reminded me to wait before passing judgment. That’s almost always a good idea.

The first thing to hit you when you arrive is there’s no place to park. There is a modest driveway, but even one parked van can block access for a second vehicle. So you park down the road or in a neighbor’s driveway and think “inaccessible”. At least, that’s what my labeling mind did. The reality that I missed is that not only is there a long driveway with plenty of room beyond the gate, but there’s a completely separate access along the edge of the property that could lead to a new estate home site. Fortunately, Cory Maguire, the listing agent, was able to straighten me out. Oops.

My second thought was dryness and sparseness. The area around the house doesn’t have much grass and there’s not a lot of underbrush. As you probably guessed by now, wrong again.

Cory led me on a tour down the length of this gently eastward sloping land, and she pointed out both the ample dry grass underfoot and the hardy fruit trees that have endured irrigation-free summers and still managed to put out bumper crops of apples and pears. The grass free areas are a result of the owner’s alpaca herd doing what animals do the world over. Eat grass. Or pears. Oops.

This is fertile land, Goldridge sandy loam, that would support grapes, organic gardens, horses, or any other commercial or family 4-H activity you can think of. It’s zoned DA which is Sonoma County’s most flexible designation. If you’re thinking of a 4-H place the other thing you should know is that the school here, Twin Hills, is a very fine place to send your children. Great parents and teachers working together to make sure all the kids get a good education.

Before you think I was a complete loon about this property I have to say that I got one label correct. The first thought I had on seeing the buildings and fences was “fixer”. I was right about that. However, don’t let the general air of structural decrepitude mask the true character of this four acre gem from your sight. Keep in mind that the 1920’s farmhouse can keep it’s claim in Sebatopol history as a granny and a main dwelling further down the property can be built. Give me a call or send me an email and I’ll arrange a tour for you and we can talk about the field of dreams you would build here. Dave Roberts 707-869-1884.  – SORRY, THIS GREAT PROPERTY IS SOLD

And in case you missed the clues, those are alpacas in the top picture.

It was beautiful driving weather today, so I thought I’d check out some fixers along Bodega Highway. Northwood Golf Club is a beautiful spot for a little recreation, but I didn’t have time for nine holes, let alone eighteen, so I just stopped to admire the redwood shaded grass for a minute and headed west. I took a quick detour into Monte Rio since I remembered a pretty gate at the Village Inn that would help flesh out my gate postings.

Just as I rememberd, this iron gate was roofed in foliage that was echoed at an interior courtyard gate. This inn is nestled in the redwoods along the banks of the Russian River so it doesn’t really need the addition of a green oasis like an urban location might, but we believe in plenty of nature in west Sonoma County.

If a couple of measly redwoods don’t give you enough plant material in your life, you can stick some plants on your fence and gates…and add some planters for good measure. Actually, all kidding aside, the “doorness” created by the ivy in the gate is an important element to add human scale to the environment, particularly in a redwood forest that reaches so high into the sky. The gate in the first photo is just visible on the lower left of this image and you can get a sense for the sheer size of the redwoods, both height and girth. The Village Inn has done a good job at building a comfortable and cozy environment within the redwoods.

I was creating some graphic headers for this site and realized that I had just made a whole bunch of pictures of entropy in action. I could do a complicated discussion of the second law of thermodynamics, but you can read that here if you’re interested. From our real world perspective, entropy is iron rusting, roofs sagging, paint peeling, and all the other signals that what was once orderly is becoming chaotic. The effects of gravity, rain, freezing, and other natural processes are at work on our buildings from the day they are completed. We only need to do a few things well to keep our shelters functioning well. Here’s your short list of absolutely positively should do tasks.

Stay Dry. It’s a simple command. Harder to do than it sounds, however, since nature is hard at work trying to sneak water into your building systems. Rain, flood, groundwater, low house elevation, and high winds work on bad shingles, missing ridges, clogged gutters, improper flashing, leaking doors and windows, bad weatherstripping, ineffective corner trim, bad building paper installation, and I’m just getting started with the external threats. Actually, that’s almost a complete list, but most of your major water problems are going to start with something in the first half dozen items. What’s illustrated very clearly in this photo is a roof with half the shingles missing. When the rain starts falling directly on your plywood, you are looking at some serious entropy, baby. I’d rather have a blue tarp than a shingle-less roof.

This sad structure is missing more than one window. The roof could be in perfect condition, but open windows are going to let in the rain and once that starts, it’s not gonna be good. What happens is that the wall and the floors both start to suffer expansion and contraction and materials like wallboard (sheetrock) and cheap trim materials start to decay almost immediately. It doesn’t take very long before structural damage to wall studs, floor joists, and subfloor materials starts to happen.

This is a great example of a floor and wall framing intersection that has suffered a catastrophic amount of water damage. Click on the image (or any image on this blog) for a large image of rot that’s beyond repair. Water did this. It does it all the time. Stay Dry!

One of the saddest things we experience in the real estate business is a building collapse due to the inability of heirs to make decisions on maintenance issues. There are frequently urgent needs for roof repairs that were deferred during the final years before someone passes. Some heirs want to sell and others may want to fix and others just don’t know and before anyone notices, the building has already fallen into complete ruin. Everybody loses when that happens, so if you find yourself arguing about what to do with Grandma’s house some day, just remember entropy and get the blue tarps ready.